Pakistan vs Sri Lanka washout scenario: Who will reach T20 World Cup 2026 semifinals?

Pakistan will face a herculean task when they take on Sri Lanka in a crucial Super 8s clash at the Pallekele International Stadium on Saturday. Pakistan’ fate, however, has an added twist — the weather. England did them a huge favour on Friday by beating New Zealand, denying the Kiwis a clear path to the knockouts. Pakistan now have their destiny in their own hands.

As things stand, New Zealand sit second in Group 2 with three points and a healthy Net Run-Rate of +1.390. Pakistan, meanwhile, have a solitary point after two matches (NRR: -0.461).

To overtake New Zealand, Pakistan must either beat Sri Lanka by roughly 64 runs or chase down the target in about 13.1 overs (assuming a 160-run target).

PAK vs SL T20 World Cup Super 8s: But what if rain intervenes?

The equation is simple: a washout in the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka clash would hand New Zealand a semi-final spot.

Pakistan earned their only point in the Super 8s after their earlier match against New Zealand was washed out, but another rain-affected game would only take them to two points — still short of New Zealand’s tally.

Currently, the Super 8 Group 2 points table stands as follows:

England – 6 points, 3 matches, NRR +1.096

New Zealand – 3 points, 3 matches, NRR +1.390

Pakistan – 1 point, 2 matches, NRR -0.461

Sri Lanka – 0 points, 2 matches, NRR -2.800

According to AccuWeather, there’s just a 1 per cent chance of rain at Pallekele on Saturday, with temperatures ranging between 19-26 degrees Celsius.

If Pakistan manage to qualify, the first semi-final will be played in Colombo. If New Zealand advance, the match shifts to Eden Gardens in Kolkata.

PAK vs SL in T20Is: STAT ATTACK

Pakistan lead 17-12 in T20Is against Sri Lanka and hold a 4-2 edge in encounters since 2025, but this Super 8s showdown could very well hinge on the weather.

Sri Lanka squad:

Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis(w), Charith Asalanka, Pavan Rathnayake, Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka(c), Dushan Hemantha, Dunith Wellalage, Dushmantha Chameera, Maheesh Theekshana, Dilshan Madushanka, Kusal Perera, Pramod Madushan, Janith Liyanage, Kamil Mishara

Pakistan squad:

Sahibzada Farhan, Saim Ayub, Salman Agha(c), Babar Azam, Fakhar Zaman, Shadab Khan, Usman Khan(w), Mohammad Nawaz, Shaheen Afridi, Salman Mirza, Usman Tariq, Khawaja Nafay, Naseem Shah, Abrar Ahmed, Faheem Ashraf

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