Can Nifty 50 touch 24,000 amid renewed fear of Trumps tariffs on India?

In the absence of a deal, market sentiment has turned cautious. Global pressures, including a weaker rupee and the potential for rising crude oil prices, are weighing particularly on export-dependent sectors.

Indian stock market: The Nifty 50 saw its sharpest intraday decline in three months on Tuesday, slipping 1.02% to 24,712, as investor sentiment weakened following confirmation from the US Department of Homeland Security that Washington will impose an additional 25% tariff on all goods originating from India starting Wednesday, casting a shadow over the outlook for Asia’s third-largest economy.

The Sensex settled at 80,786.54, down 849 points or 1.04 per cent, while the Nifty 50 slipped 256 points or 1.02 per cent to close at 24,712.05. The BSE Midcap index declined 1.34 per cent, and the Smallcap index dropped 1.68 per cent.

“As of August 26, 2025, Nifty 50 closed at 24,712, down 1.02%, amid growing concerns over US tariffs on Indian goods. The 50% tariff announced by President Trump is being implemented in two phases - 25% from August 1 and the remaining 25% from August 27. Investor fears increased after a planned US delegation visit to India was cancelled, reducing hopes of a quick resolution,” said Abhijit Paul, Co- Founder at Fynocrat Technologies.

Can Trump tariffs on India fear drag Nifty 50 down to 24,000? Paul further said that when the first 25 per cent came into effect, markets stayed hopeful of a turnaround or negotiation.

However, in the absence of a deal, market sentiment has turned cautious. Global pressures, including a weaker rupee and the potential for rising crude oil prices, are weighing particularly on export-dependent sectors.

India is taking proactive steps through GST reductions, tax revisions, and initiatives to boost domestic demand. These actions aim to support industries such as textiles, gems, and leather — which are highly exposed to US tariffs — while also reinforcing the country’s journey toward greater self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat). Analysts suggest that the full 50% tariff could slow GDP growth by about 0.2–0.5%, but these measures are likely to help cushion the blow.

Paul believes that Nifty remains above its 200-day EMA near 24,260, a key support, though it has slipped below the 50-day EMA at 24,841, indicating near-term pressure, from technical standpoint.

“Consistent buying by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provides additional support. Before the index tests the 24,000 level, it is likely to face the 200-day EMA as a strong hurdle, which may slow down or absorb the selling pressure,” he said.

He further went on to say, “In conclusion, while a test of 24,000 is possible amid tariff concerns and macro factors, the 200-day EMA will act as an important support hurdle, and domestic policy measures provide further cushion. Investors should watch US-India trade talks, crude oil trends, currency movements, and domestic policy updates, as these factors will shape market direction in the near term.”

On the other hand, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said that if the 50 per cent tariff on India kicks in from 27th and comments from both U.S. and India indicate no signs of improvement in stance, Nifty can drift down further.

“If FIIs resort to big selling in the coming days, Nifty can go down below 24000. But it is unlikely to remain there for long since DIIs flush with funds will buy aggressively lifting the index up,” Vijayakumar said.

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