Can India still reach the WTC final? Tough road ahead after shock home whitewash

NEW DELHI: India’s hopes of reaching a third World Test Championship (WTC) final, after missing out in the last cycle, have taken a major hit after a stunning 2-0 home series defeat to South Africa. The whitewash — India’s second at home in two years — has left Shubman Gill’s side stranded in fifth place on the WTC table at 48.15%, exactly halfway through their 2025–27 campaign. With nine of their 18 Tests completed, the equation is now stark: India must be near-perfect from here if they want to make the top two.

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While the standings are still fluid — New Zealand haven’t played a series yet, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have played only one each, and England have just begun their second assignment — the early dominance of Australia (100%) and South Africa (75%) has pushed India into a corner. The benchmarks from previous cycles suggest that teams typically need 60–65% to qualify. India reached the 2023 final with 58.8%, while Australia finished second in the previous cycle with 67.54%.

At the halfway mark, India sit on 52 points (four wins, four loss, one draw). To reach the 60% mark in the cycle — 130 points out of a possible 216 — they need 78 more points from their remaining nine Tests. Under the current points system (12 per win, 4 per draw), the math is unforgiving.

Heres how India can get to 130 points from remaining nine Tests: The second half of India’s campaign begins with away tours of Sri Lanka (August 2026) and New Zealand (Oct-Nov 2026). India traditionally dominated Sri Lanka — five wins in their last six Tests there — but New Zealand remained a formidable challenge, with India losing 2-0 in 2020 and 1-0 in 2014. Even a 4-0 return from these tours may still leave India needing big results in their final — and toughest — assignment: five home Tests against Australia in early 2027.

Australia look favourites to seal an early spot in the final after winning all four Tests so far and hosting Bangladesh and New Zealand later in the cycle. South Africa, with three wins from four away games, also have a strong platform despite challenging home series ahead.

India’s early stumbles at home mean their margin for error has vanished. Their road to the WTC final is still open — just narrower than ever.

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